Not Another Trading Blog !?!?



New visitors please read this post first. Here, you will find a brief statement of purpose and my motivation for this journal.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

June 8, 2011 - Trade of the Day

This entry demonstrates how I integrate different, uncorrelated analytic approaches to improve the odd's of a given opportunity turning profitable. The starting point for ALL my trades is having a predetermined price level at which I've established supply and demand are significantly out of balance. Also, the bigger picture context has to support the trade idea.

The bigger picture suggested that the larger profit margin trades would be to the short side. Stated differently, the path of least resistance was down. Next, note the red circled level (from late yesterday). That is a supply/demand imbalance, the predetermined price level I would be watching.

Trend Channels



I also use the price/volume relationship to back up the fine tuning of entry from the Footprint chart. That's far too much to cover in a blog post, but I didn't want to hide anything I do to help support the outcome of my trades. The fractal nature of price movement is clearly demonstrated by the use of channel trend lines. You can see how price cycles up and down within the context of the channels. Often, the channel direction will reverse once the channel widens... note the upper trend-lines of the up channel. So, just as the channel range widened, price was touching the imbalance level.

Once that happens, it's simply a matter of watching the Footprint to signal a reversal in order flow. The exit was taken as price receded back to the lower trend line. In hindsight, this exit was premature, however this was designed as a grab for a quick few points; so I stuck with the plan and got out where the market structure told me to.

 For the astute observers, you may be wondering about the first trade shown (no annotation, but the first magenta and blue arrows which Ninjatrader automatically places). That was our first trade of the day, taking a stab at another imbalance. I exited early, as soon as the NYSE-TICK was printing high values against my trade (another topic for another day:)